NBA Finals Preview

Old vs. young. Good vs. evil. Quiet leaders vs. not-so-quiet ones. The San Antonio Spurs and the Miami Heat are set to kick off the NBA Finals tonight, and Gregg Popovich can barely contain his excitement. 

Both teams finished at the top of their conference standings, with the Heat serving as the top seed in the East and the Spurs as the 2^nd seed in the West. With the best record in the NBA, the Heat secured home court advantage in the quirky 2-3-2 format shift for the NBA Finals.

The Miami Heat are heading to their 3^rd consecutive NBA Finals, the first Eastern Conference team to do so since Jordan’s Bulls did it from 1996-98. Although Indiana emptied the tank and gave the Heat all they could handle in a grueling 7-game series, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion at the start of the playoffs that they would find a way to defend their title. 

The Spurs handled their run through the Western Conference playoffs with an unassuming surgical precision that we haven’t seen since their last championship in 2007 – dispatching the moribund Lakers, the upstart Warriors, and the red-hot Grizzlies with relative ease. 

This series has all the makings of a classic. Here are my takes on 4 key topics that have been raised this week:

Will San Antonio’s long layoff mess with their mojo?

Monday, May 27 at approximately 11:30pm. That is when the Spurs completed their annihilation of the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals. They have had 9 full days of rest. Some see this as time to rust, but I see it as time to prepare. Popovich rests his aging core all season long - maybe not for 9 days, but they’re used to pacing themselves throughout the course of the season. This scheduling oddity will not derail a team as experienced and smart as the Spurs.

Of course, if they score 15 points on 6-20 shooting in the first period everyone will point to this.

How will Dwyane Wade’s health impact this series?

Tremendously. The Spurs are not the Pacers – the Heat need a healthy Wade to repeat as champions, not the Wade that has averaged just 14 points on 44% shooting in the playoffs (as opposed to 21 points on 52% shooting in the regular season). He looked to be at the end of his rope in Game 6 against the Pacers, scoring just 10 points, grabbing 2 boards, and dishing out exactly 1 assist, but rebounded nicely in Game 7 with 21 points and 9 rebounds. Those knees need to be somewhat healthy so he can lift off the floor. 

That 21 point Game 7 effort was his first 20+ point game since Game 2 against the Bucks back on April 23, which indicates we could be in for more game-to-game uncertainty from D-Wade.

Whose Depth wins?

To me, this is the most important factor in this series. We’re slicing out the Big 3 on both teams, so here’s what we’re looking at:

Spurs: Leonard, Green, Splitter, Diaw, Bonner, Neal

Heat: Chalmers, Haslem, Birdman, Allen, Cole, Miller/Battier

I honestly love the Spurs here. Splitter and Diaw are going to give the Heat fits down low. Diaw has played a lot on the outside of the perimeter in these playoffs, but I expect him to be in the paint a lot more in this series. These two guys are huge x-factors for the Spurs, as we saw the Heat get bullied in the paint by guys like Hibbert and West in the Conference Finals and even Joakim Noah in the Conference Semis. 

Kawhi Leonard will likely be tasked with guarding LeBron in this series, and his stellar defensive reputation at San Diego State was the driving force behind the Spurs trading for him on Draft Day two years ago. Don’t count out Danny Green getting some face time guarding Lebron too – he was the most effective defender against Stephen Curry in their series against the Warriors. Both of these guys will need to step up on the offensive end as well for those key buckets that Sean Elliot, Bruce Bowen, and Robert Horry drilled over those 4 Spurs championship runs.

On the Heat side, they’re going to need much more consistency from their role players than what they have gotten to this point. Birdman has been terrific in the postseason, and is much more of an eyeball success than a statistical one. If you’ve watched this Heat run, you know that his energy and scrappiness on the floor has been critical. Udonis Haslem provides that same junkyard style on the floor, and he appears to shoot about 98% on that baseline jumper he loves.

The rest of the litter is a bit uncertain:

Ray Allen – Allen shot just 30% from the field and averaged only 7 points per game against the Pacers – he even missed 3 free throws!

Mario Chalmers – Chalmers was having a miserable postseason before coming back to life against the Pacers - he is always a huge x-factor. 

Norris Cole – Cole had two tremendous games against the Bulls in round 2, going 9-11 from 3-point land and scoring 18 points twice over that 5 game series. As expected he came crashing back to earth, but the Heat are going to need him to make a few guest appearances.

Shane Battier – Battier was tremendous against the Thunder in last year’s finals. He averaged 11.6 points per game on 61% shooting and 58% from downtown (15-26). He was a true difference maker. They’re going to need that Shane Battier to step up against the Spurs – not the one that went just 2-15 from downtown, averaging 2.3 points per game and was held scoreless in 4 of the 7 games against the Pacers.

Mike Miller – It actually brings me physical pain watching Mike Miller hobble up and down the court. This guy literally looks like he’s going to snap in half at any moment. Did you see him in Game 2 against the Pacers when he came in, drilled a 3 at the halftime buzzer, and then practically needed a wheelchair to get to the locker room? Seeing him play 17 minutes in Game 7 was mind-blowing (especially considering he played 21 minutes in the 9 previous games combined)

LeBron and Tony – How can they be contained?

These are the lead dogs in this series. Both have proven to be pretty much unguardable, so it’s a matter of containing their production. I’m honestly not so sure that’s even possible. Both teams are elite defensively, so schemes will be in place to deal with these guys. These are two former NBA Finals MVPs, so their day-to-day greatness isn’t shocking to even the most pedestrian NBA fan. 

Miami has two glaring holes defensively – big men down low (like Hibbert) and shifty point guard play (like Tony Parker, and even Manu Ginobili). Hibbert nearly led the Pacers to victory, but the Spurs have many more weapons than the Pacers do, which prevents them from long dry spells offensively. If they force the ball out of the hands of Parker, they better be ready to defend their other weapons.

Prediction

What a series this will be. San Antonio is at a major disadvantage with the 2-3-2 format – which I honestly hate, especially when the NBA uses a 2-2-1-1-1 format for the other 3 series. Why are they worried about travel schedules now, and not over the 2 month odyssey they take us on over the first 3 rounds?

In any case, I like the Spurs in this series. They are sneaky-hungry for that 5^th championship – we have practically heard nothing about this through the entire postseason. Spurs in a classic 7.