NBA Playoffs - Round 2 Analysis and Predictions

Boy, I had to rush to get the quick picks in yesterday; I didn’t realize the turnover between rounds was so quick, normally the NBA likes to take 3 weeks between rounds.

I’ve got to be accountable for my picks, so let’s review how I did in Round 1:

 

First Round Series	John’s Pick	Result
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks	Heat in 4	Heat in 4
New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics	Knicks in 6	Knicks in 6
Indiana Pacers vs. Atlanta Hawks	Pacers in 5	Pacers in 6
Brooklyn Nets vs. Chicago Bulls	Nets in 7	Bulls in 7
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets	Thunder in 5	Thunder in 6
San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers	Spurs in 5	Spurs in 4
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors	Nuggets in 6	Warriors in 6
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies	Clippers in 7	Grizzlies in 6

Things were going pretty well, until the Nuggets and Clippers fell flat. 5/8 isn’t great… going to try to make up with it with 4 good picks this round.

Here are a few quick takeaways from Round 1:

·    The Memphis Grizzlies are way better than I thought without Rudy Gay, and are a legitimate threat to make the Finals.

·       Marc Gasol is the best center in the NBA.

·       The Los Angeles Clippers were way overrated, and were bullied by the Grizz for those last 4 games.

·       The Golden State Warriors were the surprise of the first round and their home crowd may even will them to a couple of wins in the Conference Semis.

·       Stephen Curry was the MVP of Round 1.

·       The Knicks need to shut their mouths and focus before they get pushed around by Indy.

·       The Chicago Bulls have a ton of heart; Tom Thibodeau deserves credit for keeping that team grounded.

·       The Heat and Spurs are rested and fresh, look out.

Let’s take a look at what’s ahead in the Conference Semifinals.

Eastern Conference

Miami Heat (1) vs. Chicago Bulls (5)

Doesn’t it seem like the Heat steamrolled through the first round weeks ago? Their dismantling of the Milwaukee Bucks was expected, and now they’re facing an injury-plagued Bulls team that just finished a grueling 7-game series with the Brooklyn Nets.

As undermanned as they were throughout the first round, the Bulls turned in a gutty, resilient effort and outlasted the Nets. It is efforts like this that make you wonder just how high the ceiling for this team would be if Derrick Rose would suit up.  It is a polarizing debate. D-Rose has the longevity of his career in mind and has repeatedly shut the door for a potential comeback, only to slightly crack the door back open with comments like “not ruling out” a comeback. Listen, he should sit in silence on that bench if he’s not playing. Watching Joakim Noah hobble up and down the court, and seeing Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng making the push to return from their own injuries (Deng had a spinal tap) doesn’t earn the former MVP any “warrior” points. 

But Derrick Rose is background music in this series. To me, this series is just another tune-up for the defending champs. Honestly, the entire Eastern Conference will serve as tune-ups for the Heat. They are far superior on every level, and having an undermanned team outlast them in a seven game series, no matter how resilient they may be, would be incomprehensible. 

The Pick: Heat in 5

New York Knicks (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (3)

Boy, the Knicks sure do a lot of talking for a team that just won their first playoff series since 2000. The showboating and smack talking they did during that series with the Celtics was off-putting, especially when they “wore black to the funeral”. Come on, guys. Talk about an alarming lack of respect for your opponent. This is a team that has won a championship within the past few years, has two hall of famers in their starting 5, and has one of the league’s best coaches. And you’re going to act like that? No way. Gotta fix it. Did they see what the Heat and Spurs did in the first round? That’s how winners win. If they want the league to respect them, they should act like they’ve been there before – even though they haven’t. 

All irritating behavior aside, the Pacers are a matchup nightmare for the Knicks. Is it really as simple as saying if Carmelo hits his shots, they win, and if he doesn’t, they lose? I think that may be the case. Melo is either going to shoot them into a Conference Finals matchup with the Heat, or he’s going to shoot them to their living room couches.

The Pacers are a rough, physical, defensive team. They defend the perimeter well, which is a huge problem for the Knicks, who heavily rely on 3-point shooting. The endless isolations with Carmelo give this offense a stagnant feel, and guys like Felton and J.R. Smith are going to have to pick up the slack if Carmelo’s shots aren’t falling.

Roy Hibbert and David West are going to give the Knicks fits in the paint, and if their big men get in foul trouble the Pacers are going to run away.  

The Pick: Pacers in 7   

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (5)
The Russell Westbrook injury really threw a wrench in OKC’s plans of a rematch with the Heat in the Finals, but this is Kevin Durant’s chance to truly carry this team. In a very good Western Conference, this is probably too much to ask. 

The Memphis Grizzlies are for real. Period. They play a physical, old school brand of basketball led by one of the best coaches in the NBA, Lionel Hollins. Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol has emerged as the best center in the NBA. Aside from his defense, rebounding, and ability to score, what impresses me the most about Gasol is his precision when passing the ball. His ability to find the open man on the outside or thread the needle with a pass down low to his running mate, Zach Randolph, is invaluable to their half-court game.        

Durant is going to be a beast in this series, but I think the key will be the depth on Memphis outplaying the depth on OKC. Guys like Mike Conley, Tony Allen, Tayshaun Prince, and Quincy Pondexter will be looked at to silence KD’s supporting cast, and I think after a long, grueling battle, they will.

The Pick: Grizzlies in 7

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)

If you thought what the Heat did to the Bucks in the first round was bad, what the Spurs did to the Lakers was far worse. Just a workman-like, professional disposal of the underachieving Lakers allowed the banged up Spurs to lick their wounds and prepare for the upstart Warriors that were firing on all cylinders against an overwhelmed Nuggets team.    

San Antonio’s depth is only matched by their experience. The personnel is the same from past years, with grizzled vet Tim Duncan leading by example, and Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili leading an offense that scores more than you think. 

What the Warriors did in the first round was great, and Mark Jackson deserves all the credit in the world for leading this group to the Conference Semis. I just don’t see the Spurs getting surprised here the way Denver was. They didn’t give the Lakers a sliver of hope in the first round – this team is extremely focused. I think that the Westbrook injury really gives the Spurs and open door to have one final run at a title this year. I don’t see an upstart Warriors team getting in their way. Oracle Arena will continue to rock, but the Spurs will not be bullied by a raucous crowd.

The Pick: Spurs in 6