NBA Playoffs - Conference Finals Analysis and Predictions

Once again the NBA had an uncharacteristically quick turnaround for the first game of the Western Conference Finals, only to give us nearly a 2-day lull before another game was even played – what’s up with this Heat-Pacers series not starting until Wednesday? Anyway, I made sure to get my quick picks in before tipoff this past Sunday, so please don’t chuck rocks at me for being late with the analysis.

Let’s recap my picks from the Conference Semifinals:

Conference Semifinals Series	John’s Pick	Result
Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat	Heat in 5	Heat in 5
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks	Pacers in 7	Pacers in 6
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder	Grizzlies in 7	Grizzlies in 5
Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs	Spurs in 6	Spurs in 6

Almost nailed the picks down to the game, certainly much better than the 5/8 showing I had in the first round. Here are some quick takeaways from the 2^nd round:

·       Without Derrick Rose, Chicago is a poor man’s version of the Indiana Pacers.  The physical play of the Bulls should serve as a prerequisite to the Heat for their showdown with Indiana.  I think this was one of the best things to that could happen for them, since Indiana, and whoever they meet in the finals, will bring the same brand of ball.

 

·       Roy Hibbert is a matchup nightmare.

       ·       Kawhi Leonard was the steal of the 2011 NBA Draft.

·       The Grizzlies would have beaten the Thunder with Russell Westbrook – that’s how well they’re playing right now.

Now on to the analysis and picks:

Eastern Conference Finals

Indiana Pacers (3) vs. Miami Heat (1)

Much like their layoff between Rounds 1 and 2, doesn’t it seem like the Heat has been licking its chops for a week? While Erik Spoelstra’s boys have had time to rest following their 5-game tune-up against the Bulls, the Pacers were wrapping up a long, physical series with Carmelo Anthony –errr, I mean, the New York Knicks.

There are elements of this series that throw up red flags for the Heat. First, Roy Hibbert. The Pacers absolutely exploited the monumental mismatch of Hibbert and a not-so-healthy Tyson Chandler and just destroyed the Knicks on the glass and in the paint. Miami doesn’t match up well with size and quick guard play – just as the very same Tyson Chandler, Dirk Nowitzki, and the 2011 Dallas Mavericks.

The second red flag is that the Pacers are an elite defensive team. Hibbert, David West, Lance Stephenson, and co. treat their games like heavyweight slugfests – again, a style of play not suitable for Miami.

The Pacers appear to be the most formidable threat to the Heat in the East, but their major Achilles Heel is their inability to consistently score. As we saw in Game 2 against the Knicks, the Pacers are prone to long offensive dry spells. This will be their ultimate downfall in this series. Let’s not forget, the Heat is a very good defensive basketball team in their own right. I think they come up with more than enough ways to force those dry spells and pull away from the Pacers.

The Pick:  Heat in 6

Western Conference Finals
Memphis Grizzlies (5) vs. San Antonio Spurs (2)

The Grizzlies gave us a taste of their potential against the Clippers in Round 1.  hen they gave us a whole plate of their potential in their dismantling of the defending Western Conference Champs in Round 2. It’s time for the Grizzlies to rise up and realize their ultimate potential against the ultimate Western Conference powerhouse of the last 15 years, the San Antonio Spurs. 

If the Spurs are going to win this series they’re going to need Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan to be at their best for 7 games. In recent seasons this hasn’t been the case, and it has ultimately led to them falling short of the Finals. Duncan will be worn out the deeper this series goes – every time he’s on the floor he is either going to have to deal with Z-Bo or Gasol.

The Spurs had a resounding win in Game 1 on Sunday afternoon, but do you really see them hitting 14 3’s and shooting 52% from the field for the whole series? Like the Pacers, the Grizzlies are an elite defensive team, they will make the necessary adjustments to prevent the Red Mamba from hitting 4 triples ever again.

Randolph also had a woeful Game 1, recording just 2 points.

The Pick: San Antonio needed to take Game 1, whether by 2 points or 22, to have a chance here.  I think the Grizzlies bounce back and eventually win the series in 7.