NBA Playoffs - Round 1 Analysis and Predictions

I dare you not to smile when you click on this link. That song reminds me of Shaq and Penny in Orlando, Hakeem and Clyde in Houston, Ewing’s Knicks, Kemp and Payton’s Sonics, and of course MJ and all of his glory. 

The playoffs are upon us, let’s take a look at the 8 playoff matchups scheduled to begin tomorrow afternoon.

Eastern Conference

Miami Heat (1) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (8)

The Miami Heat is 37-2 in their last 39 games, and displayed a dominance of the NBA that was unparalleled this season. They have showed a tenacity, confidence, hunger, unity, and focus that make the pick to represent the East in the NBA Finals an easy one. The first 3 rounds of the playoffs should merely be a formality for the Heat. Everything starts with this layup vs. the Bucks.

Perhaps a little more perspective for this series; the Milwaukee Bucks won 38 games the entire season. To recap, the Heat are 37-2 in their last 39, and the Bucks won 38 of the 82 games they played in the regular season. Going into specific matchups for this series seems like nonsense. LeBron and company certainly don’t Fear the Deer. 
 

The Pick:  Heat in 4

New York Knicks (2) vs. Boston Celtics (7)
Carmelo Anthony wrapped up the scoring title, and his top-3 MVP finish by averaging 36.9 points per game in April, as he and the Knicks heated up at the right time and took advantage of the opportunity to nab the #2 seed in the East. There are major questions about the health of this team, but Tyson Chandler appears to be ready to come back after missing 16 of the team’s last 20 games. 

To me, Chandler is an essential component of this team making a serious run in the playoffs. Yes, Marcus Camby, Amare Stoudemire, and Kenyon Martin all possess varying levels of importance, but in order to get past the 2^nd round, they will need Chandler to bang down low and provide the defensive presence in the paint that helped the Mavericks win the title two years ago.  

Getting back to the round at hand… Boston is not a very good team this year; they finished the season 5-11 in their last 16. The loss of Rajon Rondo leaves them without that x-factor on offense that can elevate the play of their mediocre role players, and the stars in the twilight of their careers. The loss of Rondo is compounded when you look at the depth advantage the Knicks have in this series. The Knicks should be able to take care of business, winning a playoff series for the first time since 1999-2000.

The Pick: Knicks in 6

Indiana Pacers (3) vs. Atlanta Hawks (6)

The Indiana Pacers were up 2-1 vs. the Heat in the 2^nd round of the playoffs last year, but wound up blowing a lead in Game 4, and then dropping the next two games. This year’s Pacers are a much more formidable team than last year’s surprising overachievers, and their stout defense makes them a matchup nightmare for the half court-focus of the playoffs.

The only team giving up fewer points per game this season is the Memphis Grizzlies, and they’re out West. The Pacers also lead the league in rebounds, and are particularly lethal on the offensive glass.    

The emergence of Paul George as an All Star has helped soften the blow of only having Danny Granger for 5 games this entire season, and has really helped this team take the next step from an impressive season last year. They enter the playoffs hungry and with something to prove. 

The bottom line is there really isn’t much that Josh Smith and Al Horford can do on either side of the court to get in the way of a very underrated and playoff-ready Pacers team. Indiana will grind this series out, and we should be able to look forward to a Pacers/Knicks 2^nd round matchup.

The Pick:  Pacers in 5

Brooklyn Nets (4) vs. Chicago Bulls (5)

The absence of Derek Rose has given off the illusion of a lost season for the Bulls; the Nets would be wise to ignore such illusions. The Bulls are scrappy, they crash the glass, and they play defense – all necessary traits to be successful in the postseason. They have also stopped long winning streaks by the Heat and Knicks over the past few weeks, building confidence in their ability to hang with the big boys without their leader.

This series looks like a dead heat, straight down the middle. Both teams rank near the top of the league in fewest points allowed, so these should be slow, half-court, grind-it-out slopfests. These teams have played four close games this season, with three being decided by 4 points or less. So if you can’t stomach watching defensive slugfests from start to finish, be sure to tune in when the game is tied at 70 with 5 minutes to go in the fourth quarter.   

The one main mismatch of the series is Deron Williams over Kirk Hinrich and Nate Robinson. After a pedestrian first half, Deron has sizzled down the stretch, averaging 23 points and 8 assists per game after the All Star break.  D-Will has to take over and have a big series to allow the Nets to capitalize on that advantage.    

The Pick: Nets in 7

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Houston Rockets (8)

Too much Durant. Too much Westbrook. Too little defense from Houston. The Rockets give up the 3^rd most points in the NBA, and the most of any of the playoff qualifiers. The one advantage the Rockets took from the regular season was averaging the 2^nd most points in the NBA this season, but that advantage was neutralized when they lost to the Lakers on the season’s final day, sealing their fate and matching them up against the high-octane offense of the Thunder. The Western Conference as a whole is very offense-oriented this year, but the Thunder is a matchup nightmare for the defensively-challenged Rockets.

The reason to tune into this series is to see The Beard take on his former team. James Harden has had an amazing season, and the Rockets are a much-improved team, but they certainly don’t belong in the class of OKC.

Another Rocket to keep an eye on is the underrated former Gator, Chandler Parsons.

The Pick: Thunder in 5

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)

I think there is some validity to the recent chirps about the Spurs being banged up and vulnerable. But there is absolutely no way they lose this series to the Lakers. None. 

This difference in this series starts at the top. Gregg Popovich is the best coach in the NBA. Period. His system has been successful in San Antonio for 15 years, and he has been a master at maneuvering his aging roster through the 82-game regular season to be ready for this moment. Along with their coach, the seasoned vets on the roster have a combination of experience and success in the postseason that can never be discounted, and the youngsters they have drafted over the past few years have been taken under their wings.

The Lakers simply do not play enough defense to win this series. I think their size down low with Howard and Gasol may be enough to steal a game in this series, but their perimeter defense is atrocious, and the Spurs should have no problem exploiting it. Parker and Ginobili should be able to take this series over, and you’re going to see a ton of open looks on the wings for Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and Gary Neal.

The Pick:  Spurs in 5

Denver Nuggets (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)

Holy track meet, this series is going to be a run-and-gun shootout and will probably one of the most action-packed series to watch in the first round. In fact, the Nuggets bring the highest scoring offense in the NBA. The combination of the Nuggets vicious tenacity transition and one of the league’s most devastating sharp-shooters in Golden State’s Stephen Curry and the entertainment factor is through the roof.

The last time the Warriors were in the playoffs they won that epic series against the Mavericks in 2007. Baron Davis’ leadership, the rabid crowd at the Oracle Arena, and the full tube of gel that Andris Biedrins put in his hair are the fond memories I carried away from that series. While Davis is long gone, the Warriors faithful are still there, and should come out strong for their squad – not to mention Biedrins is still on the bench and while his minutes are nearly non-existent, there hasn’t been a recall on his hair product.

While the Warriors have the postseason nostalgia of ’07 to look back on, the real home court advantage lies with their opponent. At 38-3 the Nuggets have the best home record in the NBA. The Warriors are seemingly the perfect opponent for the Nuggets, as they should have plenty of opportunity to play the brand of basketball that helped them get to the #3 seed. The lack of a true #1 option to go to when the game is on the line remains a concern for Denver, but I don’t think it will handicap them to the point of losing this series.

The Pick:  Nuggets in 6

Los Angeles Clippers (4) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (5)

A rematch of a 7-game slugfest from last season appears to be heading down the same path. This series is razor thin, but the Clippers have the look of a team poised to make it back to the 2^nd round. The Grizzlies play D, and play it well, but the departure of their leading scorer Rudy Gay gives me enough pause to doubt their ability to keep up keep with the high-flying Clippers long enough to win this series.

Lob City has the best player in this series in Chris Paul, and usually when a series is as tight as this one appears to be it is safe to divert to that advantage. Z-Bo and Marc Gasol should hold their own down low with Griffin and Jordan, but the depth of the Clippers and the presence of Paul should be just enough to push them over the top.

The Pick:  Clippers in 7