Monday, April 8, 2013

Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan Wolverines - Analysis and Prediction

One team gets it done with offense. The other gets it done with defense. One team hadn’t been to the Final Four in 20 years. The other team was there just last year.

On Saturday night, the Michigan Wolverines got off to a quick start, took an 11 point lead at the half, and were up by 10 with 13 minutes to go in the second half, giving them enough of a cushion as they held on for dear life. On the other hand, the Louisville Cardinals looked like they were sleepwalking through the game’s first 27 minutes, trailing by 12 points and staring an upset in the face, only to completely take over the final 13 minutes with a smothering full court press and timely shooting.

In tonight’s National Championship game something’s gotta give; Team Nostalgia, the Michigan Wolverines, come in riding the hot hands of their guards and the timely emergence of Mitch McGary as a presence down low. The Louisville Cardinals come in riding their suffocating defense, quick guard play, and the length and physicality of Gorgui Dieng.

Let’s take a quick look back at Saturday night:

Louisville:

Seeing Kevin Ware in uniform on the sideline was heartwarming, but despite a look on his face that seemed to scream “put me in coach” the Cardinals played an uninspiring first half vs. an upstart Wichita State team that seemed up to the task of shocking the college basketball world. The trend continued into the second half, as the Shockers lead swelled from 1 to 12 over the first seven minutes of play. 

But then it all went wrong for Wichita State. Two shots irreversibly turned the tide in the Cardinals’ favor. While Luke Hancock’s 13 points in the final 13 minutes served as the driving force to completing the comeback, it was the back-to-back 3-point shots from the corner by Tim Henderson that trimmed the Shockers lead from 12 to 6.

The constant conversions on the offensive end allowed the Cardinals to set up their full court pressure, which gave the Shockers fits. It seemed like they were just a second away from a violation on every possession, and Louisville continued to apply the pressure in the half court, forced turnovers and bad shots, and showed us the highly-touted defense that got them to Atlanta.

Michigan:

Much like they did against the Florida Gators in the Elite 8, the Wolverines came out on fire vs. Syracuse, using a barrage of outside shooting to build an 11 point halftime lead. The Syracuse zone tightened up in the second half, holding Michigan to just 25 points and opening the door for a potential comeback that came up just short. 

The Wolverines used their fast start and an excellent effort down low by Mitch McGary (10 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists) to withstand a cold second half and an off night by Trey Burke. If they are going to take down mighty Louisville, they’re going to need to sustain that high level of play for a full 40 minutes, and they’re certainly going to need Burke to step up and take over; he had just 7 points on 1-8 shooting on Saturday.

Prediction:

After making it to last year’s Final Four and losing to eventual-champion Kentucky, the Louisville Cardinals have been on a mission in this year’s tournament. After blowing through the final Big East Tournament and earning the #1 overall seed in the field of 68, they have proven the committee right, cruising to the Final Four, overcoming adversity, and winning a big game Saturday night despite not being at their best. 

That is what champions are made of. In a battle of offense vs. defense I am going to go with defense tonight. Michigan has had an incredible run to this point, putting wins against Kansas, Florida, and Syracuse on their already impressive Big Ten resume. I think that their hot shooting cools off just long enough for Louisville to take advantage.
 
Final Score: Louisville 69 – Michigan 62

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