Friday, April 5, 2013

Final Four Preview and Predictions

(9) Wichita State vs. (1) Louisville

Louisville:
Whatever doubts there were before the tournament about there being a bonafide favorite in the field of 68 have been squashed with the dominant performance by Louisville in the first four rounds. They have emerged as the clear favorite to win it all, and the way they embarrassed Duke in the second half on Sunday was all I needed to see. Kudos to the committee for correctly seeding the Big East Champs #1 overall in a somewhat cloudy field.

Just before the tournament, I heard a Rick Pitino interview on the radio where he said he challenges his team to come up with 50 defensive deflections per game – tipped passes, blocked shots, loose balls, steals, etc. They swarm the ball, and put on a ton of pressure in the half court. This is the perfect kryptonite for the inexperienced ball handlers we see in college, and Louisville has taken full advantage by forcing an average of nearly 18 turnovers per game.

The absolutely grisly injury suffered by Kevin Ware serves as an unwanted reminder of how real sports can be, beyond unscripted and competitive entertainment; the teammates saw a fallen brother, and the coach a fallen player, but perhaps most powerful part of that scene was the reaction from the crowd who witnessed a 20 year old kid experiencing a catastrophic end to his dream - although we all remain hopeful that he will make a comeback. 

From a basketball perspective, Louisville is going to miss Kevin Ware. The sophomore guard was averaging 20 minutes a game off the bench, and posted the second-best turnover rate on the team during this tournament. For a team that has made a living feasting off the other team's mistakes, this appears to be significant loss.

Wichita State:
The incredible run by Florida Gulf Coast University has rightfully overshadowed the Shockers journey so far, but it certainly should not diminish the amazing achievement. After uncharacteristically shooting the lights out to eliminate #1 seed Gonzaga in the tournament’s opening weekend, the Shockers carried that momentum through the second weekend by significantly outplaying Ole Miss, and a superior Ohio State team.

The Shockers do their work defensively, on the glass, and with some well-timed and well-balanced scoring. They will need to be on their A+ game to pull off the upset.

Prediction:
Wichita State will not be intimidated by the bright lights of the Final Four, but Louisville is the hottest team in the tournament and will march on to Monday's Final. Louisville’s speed offensively, and their ferocity and pressure defensively will be too much for the upstart Shockers to handle.  
Louisville 68 – Wichita State 55

(4) Michigan vs. (4) Syracuse 

Michigan:
The battle-tested Wolverines have seemingly been playing big games all year vs. fellow Big 10 heavyweights like Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin; so it was no surprise to see them handle teams seeded higher than them in this tournament, like Kansas and Florida this past weekend. 

I have really enjoyed watching Team Nostalgia this year, led by the sons of 90’s (and early 00's) NBA favorites Tim Hardaway and Glenn Robinson, and AP Player of the Year and Wooden Award winner, Trey Burke. For the Wolverines to crack that notorious 2-3 zone of Syracuse they will need to knock down shots from the outside, which has been one of the team's strengths this year. Syracuse has stifled opponents from behind the arc in this tournament, so it will be interesting to see which side gives. Freshman Canadian guard Nik Stauskas woke up at the perfect time on Sunday, going 6-6 from 3-point land. He could be a key x-factor tomorrow night – the Wolverines will need him to get past ‘Cuse.

Syracuse:
In college basketball the stars are the coaches, not the players. You see amazing players take over tournaments all the time, and then jet to the NBA. It’s the system that serves as a barometer of success and sustainability for a program, and a perfect example of this is Jim Boeheim in Syracuse. The 2-3 zone has stifled opponents in this tournament for decades, and this year has been no different.  They have forced turnover after turnover in this tournament by clogging the passing lanes and forcing teams to either turn the ball over or settle for a tough shot.

After watching Syracuse go through a pedestrian regular season, it was clear that from a talent perspective, Boeheim was putting an inferior team on the court than in year’s past when the Orange were heavy favorites to make deep runs. Their success in making it to the Final of this year’s Big East Tournament gave them all the momentum they needed for a somewhat improbable run to the Final Four in a bracket that featured heavy favorites like Indiana and Miami to take this spot instead. 

If there was ever a year to not count out ‘Cuse it's this year, in a wide-open field.

Prediction:
Boy, this one’s a tough call. This game , along with Monday’s Final have the chance to be the tournament’s two best games. I think Michigan has been more battle-tested this season, and I think they make one more big shot from the outside than Syracuse. 

Michigan 64 – Syracuse 61

Stay tuned for a preview of Monday's Final once the game is set...

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