Louisville:
Whatever
doubts there were before the tournament about there being a bonafide favorite
in the field of 68 have been squashed with the dominant performance by
Louisville in the first four rounds. They have emerged as the clear favorite to
win it all, and the way they embarrassed Duke in the second half on Sunday was
all I needed to see. Kudos to the committee for correctly seeding the Big East
Champs #1 overall in a somewhat cloudy field.
Just before the tournament, I heard a
Rick Pitino interview on the radio where he said he challenges his team to come
up with 50 defensive deflections per game – tipped passes, blocked shots, loose
balls, steals, etc. They swarm the ball, and put on a ton of pressure in the
half court. This is the perfect kryptonite for the inexperienced ball handlers
we see in college, and Louisville has taken full advantage by forcing an
average of nearly 18 turnovers per game.
The
absolutely grisly injury suffered by Kevin Ware serves as an unwanted reminder
of how real sports can be, beyond unscripted and competitive entertainment; the teammates saw a
fallen brother, and the coach a fallen player, but perhaps most
powerful part of that scene was the reaction from the crowd who witnessed a 20 year old kid
experiencing a catastrophic end to his dream - although we all remain hopeful that he will make a comeback.
From a
basketball perspective, Louisville is going to miss Kevin Ware. The sophomore
guard was averaging 20 minutes a game off the bench, and posted the second-best
turnover rate on the team during this tournament. For a team that has made a
living feasting off the other team's mistakes, this appears to be significant loss.
Wichita State:
The
incredible run by Florida Gulf Coast University has rightfully overshadowed the Shockers journey so far, but
it certainly should not diminish the amazing achievement. After uncharacteristically shooting the lights out to eliminate
#1 seed Gonzaga in the tournament’s opening weekend, the Shockers carried that
momentum through the second weekend by significantly outplaying Ole Miss, and a
superior Ohio State team.
The Shockers
do their work defensively, on the glass, and with some well-timed and
well-balanced scoring. They will need to be on their A+ game to pull off the
upset.
Prediction:
Wichita State will not be intimidated by
the bright lights of the Final Four, but Louisville is the hottest team in the tournament and will march
on to Monday's Final. Louisville’s speed offensively, and their ferocity and pressure defensively will be too much for the upstart Shockers to handle.
Louisville 68 – Wichita State 55
(4) Michigan vs. (4) Syracuse
Michigan:
The
battle-tested Wolverines have seemingly been playing big games all year vs.
fellow Big 10 heavyweights like Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, and
Wisconsin; so it was no surprise to see them handle teams seeded higher than
them in this tournament, like Kansas and Florida this past weekend.
I have really enjoyed
watching Team Nostalgia this year, led by the sons of 90’s (and early 00's) NBA favorites Tim
Hardaway and Glenn Robinson, and AP Player of the Year and Wooden Award winner, Trey Burke. For the Wolverines to crack that notorious 2-3
zone of Syracuse they will need to knock down shots from the outside, which has been one of the team's strengths this year. Syracuse
has stifled opponents from behind the arc in this tournament, so it will be
interesting to see which side gives. Freshman Canadian guard Nik
Stauskas woke up at the perfect time on Sunday, going 6-6 from 3-point land. He
could be a key x-factor tomorrow night – the Wolverines will need him to get
past ‘Cuse.
Syracuse:
In college
basketball the stars are the coaches, not the players. You see amazing players
take over tournaments all the time, and then jet to the NBA. It’s the system
that serves as a barometer of success and sustainability for a program, and
a perfect example of this is Jim Boeheim in Syracuse. The 2-3 zone has
stifled opponents in this tournament for decades, and this year has been no
different. They have forced turnover after turnover in this tournament by clogging the passing lanes and forcing teams to either turn the ball over or settle for a tough shot.
After
watching Syracuse go through a pedestrian regular season, it was clear that
from a talent perspective, Boeheim was putting an inferior team on the court
than in year’s past when the Orange were heavy favorites to make deep runs. Their
success in making it to the Final of this year’s Big East Tournament gave them all
the momentum they needed for a somewhat improbable run to the Final Four in a
bracket that featured heavy favorites like Indiana and Miami to take this spot
instead.
If there was
ever a year to not count out ‘Cuse it's this year, in a wide-open field.
Prediction:
Boy, this one’s a tough call. This game , along with Monday’s Final have the chance to be the tournament’s two best games. I think
Michigan has been more battle-tested this season, and I think they make one more big shot from the outside than
Syracuse. Michigan 64 – Syracuse 61
Stay tuned for a preview of Monday's Final once the game is set...
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