2013 New York Yankees Forecast

My Prediction:  88-74, 2^nd Wild Card Spot.

It has been 20 years since the Yankees have entered a season with so many question marks, and with the technological advances that have erupted over the past two decades, no Yankee team has ever been this heavily scrutinized by the media, the fans, and the experts. 

We Yankee fans are a spoiled bunch, celebrating an average of 97.2 wins per season since 1996 – which still amazes me. I am specifically talking to my generation, which has seen the Yankees as the heavy favorites every year, and can barely remember a time where Mo Rivera and Derek Jeter weren’t anchoring our championship expectations. Now we rely on grizzled veterans at the end of their careers, scrap heap flyers, and a mixed bag of prospects that have shown promise. 

This is the year for Girardi to show us what he’s got. He’ll need to adopt a new philosophy of manufacturing runs on offense, specifically in the games before Memorial Day; perhaps he should take a page out of Joe Maddon and Mike Scioscia’s book. With Gardner, Ichiro, and Nunez seeing regular playing time, the speed element should ignite some life in an offense that has heavily relied on the long ball. Of course, none of this matters if they continue to struggle with runners in scoring position.   

The pitching staff and bullpen should be a strength in 2013, with Rivera returning for one final ride as the greatest closer in Major League history. Sabathia and Kuroda will lead a rotation seemingly poised to keep the Yanks in games the way that they did in the 2012 playoffs (when everyone but Raul Ibanez forgot their bats on the racks). They will need to perform to keep us afloat, especially while the injured bats heal.

The rest of AL East appears as strong as ever and ready to pounce on the wounded Yankees. However, there is enough leadership and experience on this team to compete for one of the two wild cards. Does the culture of winning they’ve established over the past two decades count for nothing? Let’s take a look at the 25 man roster that broke camp last week:   

Starting Rotation

CC Sabathia – The rock, the anchor of the rotation. Fresh off his annual Cap’n Crunch-free diet and minor surgery on his elbow in the offseason, CC needs to lead a rotation that will be heavily leaned on this season. He has been as reliable as aces come, going 74-29 with a 3.24 ERA in 4 seasons with the Yankees, eclipsing 200 innings pitched each season. One concern is that CC tends to heat up with the weather, which would be troublesome this year in particular.

Hiroki Kuroda – If you look up you might be able to see the bar that has been set for Kuroda, fresh off a season where he was the team’s best pitcher. A pitcher making the move from the NL to the AL has always been the kiss of death, but not for Hiroki, who posted career highs in wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, WAR, and his 2^nd lowest career ERA. He’ll need to live up to lofty expectations in 2013.

Andy Pettitte – Even beyond Phil Hughes missing his first start or two, you have to figure the depth of the Yankees’ starting rotation will be put to the test again at some point during the season. Entering his age-41 season, Andy Pettitte has not made it through a season unscathed since the championship run of ’09 (with one season of retirement included). I expect him to make somewhere around 20 starts, which could be problematic in a season where we can’t just say “as long as he’s healthy in October.”

Ivan Nova – After a promising 2011, Ivan Nova completely imploded with a ghastly 2012. After a first half that saw him post an inflated 10-3 record, Nova struggled to stay in the rotation in the second half, posting a disgusting 7.05 ERA in 11 starts – 2 of which he somehow won. Apparently he spent the offseason working on his mechanics, which better yield results if he wants to take the ball every 5^th day.

David Phelps – It was a small sample size, but I absolutely loved what I saw from David Phelps last year. His command and poise on the mound remind me a lot of Mike Mussina, and his versatility should be an asset – they used him as a starter, a long man, and a set up guy in 2012. 

Bullpen

Mariano Rivera – The G.O.A.T. Soak it all in and put a bow on the memories of Mariano this year, you’ll be telling your kids and their kids that you were able to see The Great Mariano pitch. It should be surreal seeing the treatment that the 43 year old living legend gets as he tours the majors one final time.

David Robertson – Took a slight step back last year after his career year in 2011, but he was still solid. The Yanks need the man they call Houdini to build the bridge to Mo. He will need to cut down on the 7 losses he was tagged with last year.

Joba Chamberlain – This is a make-or-break season for the enigmatic Joba Chamberlain. Injuries, inconsistency, and organizational mistreatment have prevented Joba from ever really reaching the potential and promise he showed in parts of 2007 and 2008. Now that he is healthy and has a defined role he could be a potentially huge X-factor out of the bullpen. 

Boone Logan – The only lefty in the bullpen this season, Boone Logan led the majors in appearances in 2012. In his 3 years in the Bronx, Logan has been one of Girardi’s favorites, and has proven he can get righties out as well.

Cody Eppley – A pleasant surprise last year, Eppley was a great matchup vs. righties. He barely made the team after a horrific Spring Training.

Shawn Kelley – Kelley was a stealth pickup by Cashman at the beginning of Spring Training, and he turned enough heads in Spring Training to make the team. Given the success of other recent bullpen pickups like Cory Wade, Cody Eppley, and Clay Rapada, they might catch lightning in a bottle for a year.

Adam Warren – Warren will be the long man, and I expect him to make several trips back and forth to Scranton before the season is done. Once Hughes is activated off the DL, Phelps (or even Nova) should assume this role.

Position Players (alpha)

Brennan Boesch – This Tigers castaway was a very interesting mid-Spring Training pickup. He fell out of favor with Leyland in Detroit after a poor 2012, but the 27 year old outfielder has a significant upside. He is certainly worth the flyer the Yankees took, and has options to be sent to the minors if necessary.

Robinson Cano – A bona fide superstar in the prime of his career, Cano will need to carry this offense for the first 6 weeks of the season and beyond if they are to make the playoffs. 

Francisco Cervelli – They will be asking a lot of this oft-injured backup catcher this season. They figure to split the time right down the middle with Cervelli and Stewart. The light-hitting Cisco has career highs of 266 at bats and 93 games played in parts of 5 seasons in the Bronx. His durability will be put to the test.  He had a phenomenal defensive spring, for what it’s worth.

Ben Francisco – Journeyman outfielder is now playing for his 6^th team since 2009. Francisco should see playing time vs. lefties, and provide bench depth.

Brett Gardner – Coming off a lost 2012, Gardner has really become one of the key pieces of the new offensive philosophy of 2013. Gardner was a full time regular in 2010 and 2011, and stole an average of 48 bases, scored an average of 93 runs, and played gold glove-caliber defense. He creates havoc on the basepaths and is a critical piece this year.

Travis Hafner – Pronk joins the Yanks after spending the last decade in Cleveland; the first part of that decade saw Hafner mentioned repeatedly in the league’s top 10 MVP discussion, while the second half was spent in the trainer’s office. The injury-prone thumper will pick up whatever was lost from Raul Ibanez’s departure, minus any defense. If Hafner can stay somewhat healthy, which he hasn’t since 2007, he could become good friends with the short porch in right field.

Jayson Nix – Nix will serve as a utility backup infielder in his second year in the Bronx.

Eduardo Nunez – This speedy infielder has a very quick bat and a ton of promise. Defensive woes derailed his 2012 season to the point where he is now intentionally bouncing the ball to first to try to avoid his trademark overthrows. His speed should help produce runs, and he should see a ton of playing time early with Jeter sidelined.

Lyle Overbay – Last minute pickup off the Red Sox scrap heap, the defensive-minded Overbay will see the bulk of playing time at First Base while Teixeira heals. Nunez’s bouncers influenced this pickup. The Yanks will be Overbay’s 5^th team since 2010, and perhaps they can catch some offensive lighting in a bottle until Tex returns.

Chris Stewart – Another light-hitting catcher, Stewart won’t help us forget the inexplicable departure of Russell Martin. Stewart is a zero offensively, and has never played more than 67 games in a season.   

Ichiro Suzuki – The future Hall of Famer will try to build on his late-season success last year. He and Gardner will pair up to give the Yanks a great defensive outfield. Ichiro has played a minimum of 157 games in 11 of his 12 major league seasons, including all 162 last year, so I am not overly concerned with his age – the guy is in freakishly good shape. 

Vernon Wells – A close friend of mine once went out of his way to email Peter Gammons, asking him “what on earth is the madness that surrounds Vernon Wells?” The early years of Wells’ career seemed to alternate between good production and horrible disappointment, which led to scrutiny when the Jays signed him to an unfathomable contract in 2008. The Jays were able to unload him to the Angels in 2011, and after swallowing $30mm of the $43mm remaining, the Angels were able to unload him to the Yanks. Tons of financial benefits for the Yanks in this deal make it easier to swallow – and after getting steady playing time until Granderson returns, Wells should be a better version of Andruw Jones in 2013.

Kevin Youkilis – For once, those “boos” will actually be “Youks” in the Bronx. I could go on for days about this signing, but as big as the need for him was in December, it’s about 10x more now. Youkilis will be a critical part of this team’s success both offensively and defensively, especially until the DL guys return. His versatility as a first baseman is so valuable with Tex hurt and Swish and Chavez gone. Reports of his demise are overblown, especially given his resilient history in the minors. I hope the fans appreciate this blue collar guy and look past where he made a name for himself.

15-Day Disabled List (listed in order of scheduled re-appearance)

Phil Hughes – should only miss 1-2 starts; lets hope the back stops barking.

Derek Jeter – Tried to rush back to make Opening Day, and gave it a valiant effort. I expect him back in late April.

Curtis Granderson – a very cut-and-dry injury, Grandy should return on schedule in early May. 

Mark Teixeira – Easily the most concerning of the injuries. This injury destroyed Jose Bautista last year, so I expect the Yanks to be very careful and not rush him back. I don’t think we can realistically expect him back much earlier than Memorial Day. I hold my breath before reading any injury update on him.