Spring is in the air, and Major League Baseball is set for Opening Night tomorrow with the Rangers visiting the Astros. Several players have changed teams, and one team has even changed leagues. Everyone is a contender on April 1st, at least for one pitch.
Let's catch up with a recap of the offseason and a look ahead to 2013 for each team.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL EAST:
Blue Jays – Ladies and gentlemen, the
champions of December! Nobody has undergone a more intense facelift than the
Jays. They were a sexy preseason pick to make some noise last year, before
injuries derailed them midseason. I think those same people are getting louder
with their prognostications this year, and the bandwagon has grown. They have
made a lot of moves this offseason, but it remains to be seen whether or not
they are the right moves. Jose Reyes
will have to play nearly 90 games on turf. Melky is off the juice and back in a
division where he won’t surprise anyone. Can R.A. Dickey duplicate his success
from last year? A relocation to the AL East will not help the reigning NL Cy
Young winner’s ERA in 2013, however I do see him only taking a slight step back
from last year’s incredible journey. The success of the Jays in 2013 will rest
on the health of Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow. If they can give full seasons
the Jays should be in the hunt to win their first division title in 20 years; I
wouldn’t bet on it. Much like the
Angels, their bullpen looks like a potential Achilles Heel.
Orioles – 29-9 in one run games.16-1 in
extra-inning games. Lady Luck was certainly on the Orioles’ side in 2012, which
is what every surprise team needs to make a run. What Baltimore did last year
was special, and Camden Yards was rockin’ like it was 1997. So, what do the O’s
do in the offseason? Nothin’. A very quiet and disappointing offseason for
Baltimore will mean they are heavily relying on guys like Manny Machado and
Matt Wieters to take the next step in 2013. They will be getting a healthy Nick
Markakis and Brian Roberts back (for now), and Adam Jones has emerged as a star
and a leader of this bunch. The major blunder by the Orioles was not going out
and getting another pitcher. I don’t see them repeating their success this year
without a pitcher with a better major league resume than Jason Hammel.
Red Sox – The Red Sox remind me of a
40-something that undergoes extensive plastic surgery to look young and hot
again, only they appear desperate and miscalculated, which leads to people like
me doing a double-take and then talking about them when they’re out of earshot.
The Sox began this major overhaul towards the end of the summer when they
unloaded Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Adrian Gonzalez, among others. They
also unceremoniously exiled Bobby V and his corpse that easily aged 10 years
over the course of 162 games in 2012. Then they went out and signed Mike
Napoli, a catcher who they probably won’t let catch with Salty on the roster,
and probably won’t let DH with David Ortiz around. They will likely stick him
out of position at First Base; that should go well. They also added Shane
Victorino and Ryan Dempster, neither move I like. Perhaps the best move they
made was at Manager, bringing back John Farrell. They will be better than their
69 wins from last year, but at this point I think anything much over .500 would
be a surprise.
Rays – Once upon a time, deep deep in the jungle, there was a little engine
that could. This is a team that finds the perfect group of misfit toys to
make their system work. Year-in and year-out we think they have the pitching,
but the offense isn’t quite there to make a championship run – and yet, every
September they’re making a push for the playoffs. Joe Maddon is a master at
capitalizing on matchups by always changing his lineup, and exploiting
tendencies with incredible defensive alignments. Yes, they lost James Shields,
but now is the time for Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore to step up and support
reigning AL Cy Young winner David Price. They have also lost BJ Upton, but
Tampa Bay was never the right situation for him. This roster seems to turn over
rapidly every year; it’s the system that works.
Evan Longoria needs to stay off the DL this year and be the MVP
candidate he has shown he can be. Watch
out for Wil Myers to burst on the scene by Memorial Day at the latest.
Yankees – I will be devoting an entire
post to my forecast for the Yankees in the near future, since doing so here
would dominate this post. I mention later that 1992 was the last winning season
for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Just as the Pirates have not won 81 games since,
the Yankees have not lost 81 games
since. Some experts are predicting this could be the year the Pirates get over
the hump and finish on the plus-side of .500, while about ten times as many of
those same experts are predicting the Yankees run of finishing over .500 will
end in 2013. I think these prognostications, at least on the Yankees end, are
overblown on many accounts. Everyone needs to pump the brakes. Yes, the Yankees
are old, but they have been old for ten years. They have spent these winning
seasons building and branding a winning culture. They know what it takes to get
through 162 with an opportunity to play more. This has been the worst spring
training I have ever tracked for the Yankees, with seemingly every day bringing
out a new injury, ache, or pain. If the Yanks stay afloat until Memorial Day
they will be fine, with Granderson, Teixeira, and Jeter back in full swing. Hopefully
the small ball style they will be attempting to employ early on will have
enough momentum to continue when Grandy and Tex return to supply some thump. They
will also be motivated to get Mo to the playoffs one final time, and avoid a
repeat of 2008 when they closed the doors to the old Yankee Stadium with no
postseason.
AL CENTRAL:
Tigers – The writing is chiseled on the
wall before Opening Day; I see no feasible way that this team won’t win this
division with ease. There is way too much firepower in their lineup and
starting rotation to come up short, not to mention they will be getting Victor
Martinez back after missing all of last season. They also made a savvy move by
bringing in Torii Hunter’s glove to cover the spacious right field at Comerica
Park. For the Tigers to get those extra 4 wins in the World Series, they need
Max Scherzer to be a bona fide #2 behind Verlander. Fister and Anibal are
reliable middle of the rotation guys, but Scherzer has the highest ceiling and
he needs to fulfill his promise in 2013. They also need a closer at the
deadline (Huston Street?).
Indians – Before I sat down to write
this I was ready to unload on the Indians, tell them their offseason moves were
just simply chasing wins and ticket sales… but when I took a look at their
lineup, it’s really not too shabby. They were busy this offseason, starting at
the top with the hiring of Terry Francona. The additions of Nick Swisher,
Michael Bourn, Mark Reynolds, and Drew Stubbs join a promising young core of
Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana, and Jason Kipnis. Team chemistry should mesh
well with the new additions, even as the strikeout totals rise for guys like
Reynolds and Stubbs. The major issue I have with this team is their starting
rotation. Ubaldo Jimenez had an awful year last year, and really hasn’t been
anything remotely ace-like since his blistering first half in 2010. Just to
give a little bit more perspective, Scott Kazmir gets the nod as the #5
starter, with Dice-K waiting in the wings. With a staff like this, all signs
point to another around-.500 finish. Their bullpen should be a strength.
Royals – What happened with the O’s and
A’s last year doesn’t happen every year, but if I had to pick one new team to
shock the world in 2013 it would be the Royals. I really like their lineup, led
by a finally-blossomed Alex Gordon,
Billy Butler, and fresh-off-a-brutal-sophomore-slump Eric Hosmer; they are also
very steady defensively. They are young and they are hungry, they just need to
know what they’re eating. Their bullpen throws absolute peas, which means if
their freshly-made-over rotation can hold serve, they can win some games. James
Shields, Ervin Santana, and Jeremy Guthrie give the rotation some much needed
experience that has been lacking in KC for so long. This team can certainly finish over .500.
White Sox – Speaking of meandering
around .500, I get a similar vibe from the ChiSox. The South Siders boast a
frontloaded starting rotation with Chris Sale and Jake Peavy, and a promising
second year closer in Addison Reed, but things get pretty pedestrian with the
pitching beyond those three. Their lineup should produce some runs with the
consistent bat of Paul Konerko leading the way. Dayan Viciedo will need to take
the next step this season, and Gordon Beckham needs to scrape himself off the
ground and avoid the bust tag. Robin Ventura inspired this group for 5 months
last year, but everyone watching knew they were playing above their heads,
we’ll see if he can do it again in 2013.
Twins – The Twins have fallen a long way since being the small-market
darlings of the 2000’s. Their starting rotation has an ace that probably
wouldn’t be more than a #5 on most teams, which tells you just about all you
need to know. Their lineup is loaded with youth, and complemented with star
power like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. I am all but certain that Morneau will
be dealt to a contender at some point this season, and Josh Willingham probably
won’t be far behind. I have always been a huge fan of Ron Gardenhire, but if
things go as far south as we think, I fear for his j-o-b.
AL WEST:
Angles – Murderers Row, and Peter
Bourjos? Boy, will this team mash. Art Moreno’s encore to the Albert Pujols
splash last year was Josh Hamilton, this year’s prize free agent. Last year’s
emergence of Mike Trout as one of the game’s best players gives the Angels a
trio of megastars to anchor their offense. Their starting rotation and bullpen
both look thin, but the offense and the savvy Mike Scoscia should allow this
team to cruise to the playoffs. Only then we will see if their pitching will be
their true Achilles Heel. Jered Weaver is my pick to take home the Cy Young
this year, a healthy season should yield 20+ wins easily with this lineup.
A’s – Have you seen Josh Reddick’s
beard? It’s glorious. It resembles a love child between Brian Wilson’s beard
and Hacksaw Jim Duggan’s beard in its heyday. In fact, Reddick has agreed to a
“beard-off” challenge with WWE wrestler Daniel Bryan to grow it for all of
2013, so everyone should have the opportunity to check it out.
As for the
baseball team. We can call it a tie with the O’s for the absolute shocker of
2012; in fact, the A’s won the division that held the apparently-over-hyped
Angels and 2-time defending AL champion Rangers, which may be even more
impressive than Baltimore. They will return virtually the same team as last
year, with the addition of Chris Young and Jed Lowrie. The key for this squad
will be the year-2 development of their huge cluster of rookies from 2012. Can
they build off of a monstrous 2nd half last year? Will they all hit
a sophomore slump in 2013? Very unpredictable.
Their pitching is lethal, and set the MLB record for most rookie wins
last season, and I expect them to be in the hunt once again, but don’t be
surprised if the league catches up.
Rangers – Very rough offseason for Ron
Washington’s Rangers. They lost their best run producer and perennial MVP
candidate, Josh Hamilton, one of the most underrated players in all of
baseball, Michael Young, and another strong stick in Mike Napoli. They replaced
those stars with the aging, injury-prone Lance Berkman, and the volatile A.J.
Pierzynski. Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt wait in the wings, and will likely
play a big part in this team’s plans in 2013. Can Adrian Beltre be a #1 guy, or
is he better suited at being the 2nd or 3rd best
offensive leader on a team? They will also miss Young’s versatility this year. A
lot rests on the starting rotation, and offensively on the health of
oft-injured Nelson Cruz.
Mariners – The MLB’s worst offense went
out and added Kendrys Morales, Michael Morse, Raul Ibanez, and Jason Bay. Does
this excite you? It doesn’t excite me, in fact, it seems like they’re really chasing wins here. Morales hasn’t
been the same since his walk-off-grand-slam-misstep, and Jason Bay’s recent
track record speaks for itself. Ackley, Smoak, and Saunders give the M’s some
hope and promise for the future. Beyond King Felix their rotation remains
paper-thin. They really have no shot in this division of heavyweights.
Astros – Speaking of no shot in this
division, welcome to the AL, Houston. Take a look at this team’s roster; their
opening day payroll will be a shade over $25mm, which is less than Arod’s
salary alone (facepalm). Saying this is a rebuilding period for Houston is a
massive understatement; they resemble an expansion team at this point. They have
the potential to threaten the ’62 Mets’ record of 120 losses, but I see them
finishing with about 105-110 at most…. Hmm… something positive… they have a
beautiful ballpark, and if they don’t lose 100 the season can be called a
success.
THE PICKS
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East
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Central
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West
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Wild
Cards
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American
League
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Rays
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Tigers
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Angels
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Rangers,
Yankees
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL EAST
Nationals - The Washington Nationals won
a franchise-best 98 games last year, and what did they do in the offseason?
They improved their offense. They improved their defense. They improved their
starting rotation. They improved their bullpen. The Nats are the girl everyone wants to date. They’re young,
and after last year’s devastating elimination game to the Cardinals, they’re
just young enough to be viciously hungry for more. Incredibly savvy pickups
like Denard Span, Dan Haren, and Rafael Soriano will be welcomed additions to
this powerhouse. Offensively all eyes will be on the encore of Bryce Harper. An
unlimited amount of Stephen Strasburg will give them a true ace to pair with
Gio Gonzalez at the top of their rotation. With Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen,
and Soriano at the back of the ‘pen they have 3 guys with closing experience. Get
ready for an exciting summer, and fall, in the Nation’s Capital.
Braves – A sure contender in 2013, the
Braves have one of the most sustainable rosters in baseball. With the Upton
brothers, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, and Andrelton Simmons, the Braves are
set for years to come on offense and defense. Throw in Dan Uggla and Brian
McCann and the Braves have veteran leadership to lead the youngsters now that
Chipper has retired. The upside is tremendous for the Braves. The rotation is
where things get a bit unpredictable. Kris Medlen was absurd down the stretch
last year, can he duplicate that? A very good bullpen will be setting up Craig
Kimbrel, one of my favorite players in the league, and I’m looking forward to
him throwing absolute seeds again in 2013. Unless the Braves eclipse their
upside, or things go terribly wrong in Washington, they should be one of the
Wild Cards again.
Phillies – Don’t sleep on the Phillies.
After a down year last year, they still have a ton of weapons on this
roster. With Hamels, Halladay and Lee
leading the rotation, and Papelbon anchoring the pen the Phillies return a
scary pitching staff. The acquisition of the underrated and versatile Michael
Young will help both every day, and in case one of the recently oft-injured
members of the right side of the infield goes down. Unfortunately, they’re in
the wrong division, and too many things need to go perfect for them to win it. A
wild card spot remains a possibility if a lot goes right.
Mets – Best thing I heard all offseason
– who are the two highest paid Mets outfielders this year? Jason Bay, who is
now in Seattle, and Bobby Bonilla, who hasn’t laced up his spikes since 2001.
Incredible. But I’ll stop there with the
Mets bashing. I absolutely loved the Dickey trade; Travis d’Arnaud will give
them a stable force behind the plate for years to come. Remember the Beltran
deal from 2011? Loved that too, with
Zach Wheeler giving Mets fans promise for the future. 2013 will give everyone a
chance to see what Matt Harvey can do for a full season. But beyond watching
what specific young players are capable of, there’s really not much else in
2013. Their bullpen is a nightmare, and they have no offensive threat beyond
Wright and Ike. The ceiling for this squad is 3rd place. Hosting the
All Star Game should be the highlight of the summer at Citi Field.
Marlins – The third Marlins firesale of
the past 15 years has left nothing but charred remains of a once-promising
beginning to the 2012 season. There are several major differences with this
firesale though. First, unlike in 1997-98 and 2003-04 there is no championship
to hang your hat on. Secondly, they now have a brand new ballpark, funded
largely by taxpayer dollars. The acquisitions made last offseason generated
some excitement and had fans coming to the ballpark. The fan base totally
resents Jeffrey Loria, and a major rebellion may be on the horizon. This
franchise is terribly run, a laughingstock.
Giancarlo Stanton needs to get out immediately.
NL CENTRAL
Cardinals – These are the guys that
come to the party and know how to hold their liquor. With a team of established
veteran leadership and championship experience, the Cards look poised to
contend once again for a spot in the postseason. Second year manager Mike
Matheny has the sour taste in his mouth of being one win shy of the World
Series. This is by far the best offense in the National League, and while the
loss of Chris Carpenter once again hurts the rotation, they do get Adam
Wainwright in “Year 2” post-Tommy John. I expect him to return to Cy
Young-caliber form, and I expect Lance Lynn to step up as a solid 2-3 with
Jaime Garcia. Watch out for the aspirin being thrown by Trevor Rosenthal if he
gets his call.
Reds – You can’t turn a whore into a
housewife, right? I was petrified all offseason that the Reds were going to
force Aroldis Chapman to be a housewife. Closing is an art, a very specific,
and VERY valuable skillset. When you
have a closer as special as Aroldis Chapman, you keep him your closer. Period. With
Cueto and Latos fronting this rotation, the need is in the bullpen for the Reds,
not as a #5 starter. I am so thankful they came to their senses and aborted the
idea. The offense should produce, led by perennial MVP candidate and triple
crown threat Joey Votto. Todd Frazier will have the reins at third base, but
beware of the sophomore slump.
Brewers – How’s mediocrity, Milwaukee? Other
than their brief signs of playoff life in 2008 and 2011, the Brew Crew seems to
always hover around the 77-82 win range. I expect more of the same this year,
probably more towards the 77 than the 82 though. Braun, Hart, and Ramirez
anchor an offense that doesn’t boast much else, and the same can be said about
Yovanni Gallardo and the rotation. The recent pickup of Kyle Lohse seems a bit
like foolish hope to me, but he should help the rotation. I have no confidence
in John Axford out of the pen.
Pirates – I was eight years old when
Francisco Cabrera’s 35-hopper made its way toward Barry Bonds in left and sent
the Braves to their second straight World Series in 1992. Bonds went to San
Francisco the following year, and I sit here at 28 years old (29 by seasons
end) with that as my last memory of the Pirates finishing a season over .500. As
a Yankees fan, I clearly have no place commenting on the utter misery that
Pirate fans have endured for nearly a quarter century, specifically while the
Yankees have experienced the polar opposite. They have taken huge steps the
past two seasons to finally get win number 81 under their belt. Through 120
games last year they were energetic, fun to watch, and over .500, only to
stumble in a dreadful final quarter. The addition of Russell Martin should
serve as great veteran leadership, and he should be able to help the starting
rotation improve and endure an entire season. MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen
will lead a very young offense. The Pirates are getting close, maybe this won’t
be the year they get to 81, but success could be around the bend in a year or
two.
Cubs – The lovable losers from the
North Side figure to stay true to form in 2013. With a rotation loaded with 4’s
and 5’s the cubs just simply won’t have the pitching to carry a light-hitting
offense. I expect Soriano to be dealt to a contender sometime this year. Jeff
Samardzija can eclipse 200 strikeouts this year, and gives the fans a young arm
to watch. There’s always next year…
Those passionate Cubs fans have been saying that an awful lot over the
past century.
NL WEST:
Dodgers – Hey Mark Teixeira, Hanley
Ramirez feels your pain. The two biggest casualties of the WBC are going to be
sorely missed while they recover over the first two months of the season. Since
selling the team, the Dodgers have been making it rain like 2 Chainz in a strip
joint. The bar has been set impossibly high for the emotionally fragile Zack
Greinke with the ludicrous contract he was given. However, this team is loaded.
With Clayton Kershaw fronting a very deep rotation, the Dodgers pitching will
be a strength, especially in a light-hitting NL West. Matt Kemp will be try to
reach his MVP promise in 2013, after spending the past couple of seasons battling
inconsistency and injury. I love Kenly Jansen and Brandon League in the back of
this bullpen too. Expectations are
through the roof for this bunch, and Don Mattingly better lead them there, or
else.
Giants – Has there ever been a less
respected team to win 2 World Series’ in 3 years? The Giants return nearly
their entire championship roster from last year, and have been swept under the
rug in favor of teams like the Nats, Dodgers, Braves, and Reds for NL supremacy.
The Giants have built a winning culture over the past few years with a
top-notch starting rotation and the steady leadership of Bruce Bochy. Pitcher-friendly
AT&T Park is perfect for this team that features stout pitching, speed, and
youth. Tim Lincecum is poised for a bounce-back season, and reigning MVP Buster
Posey leads an offense that seems to always get the big hit at the right time.
Diamondbacks – You know the feeling you
get when you’re playing poker with your boys and you’ve got the winning hand
locked up before the river, yet your friend continues to foolishly bluff and
throw valuable chips to the center of the table? Well, the Dbacks threw Justin
Upton to the center of the table, and the Braves had that feeling – a total heist. Just a brutal deal by the Dbacks that
saw them lose their star outfielder and get Martin
Prado, among other nonsense and prospects, in return. This offense will be
dreadful in 2013, with the exception of Paul Goldschmidt and maybe Aaron Hill, and
there’s nothing that Ian Kennedy or NL ROY runner-up Wade Miley can do to get
this team over .500. They also shipped out one of their top pitching prospects
in Trevor Bauer in the Drew Stubbs – Shin-Soo Choo deal, with neither player
relocating to the desert.
Padres – Real quick, who led the NL in
RBI last year? Anyone guess Chase Headley? Me neither. And the good news stops there for San Diego. Not
only is there nothing else to celebrate on this team beyond Headley, but
Headley will be missing the first 6 weeks of the season to injury. The Padres
will be getting plenty of calls throughout the season from contenders looking
for Luke Gregerson or Huston Street to tune up their ‘pen. Looks like another season in the low 70s for
San Diego, and that has nothing to do with the weather.
Rockies – 92-83-73-64. Since the
Rockies last made the playoffs in 2009 those have been their win totals – they
are going the wrong way, and fast. Last year the Rockies had one of the worst
starting rotations in MLB history, with a combined 5.81 ERA. There’s really
nothing this offense can do to compensate for that brutal pitching. Todd Helton
figures to be a potential trade target this season. CarGo and Tulo figure to have another wasted,
Rocktober-less season.
THE PICKS
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East
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Central
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West
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Wild
Cards
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National
League
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Nationals
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Reds
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Giants
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Braves,
Dodgers
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